Billy Beane is Not Infallible, Morons
If there was a downside to Jim Hendry’s masterful acquisition of Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin, it was the fact that the Billy Beane blowers came out in full force to defend the trade. I like Billy Beane. I think he’s one of the top five general managers in the MLB. He has done more with the small-market Oakland Athletics–including their surprise contention in this year’s American League West–than most big-budget teams have. His strategy of taking advantage of undervalued statistics (and obtaining every possible statistic imaginable), which was so entertainingly and clearly explained in Michael M. Lewis’ Moneyball, was fantastically clever. But you might want to sit down for a minute, Minions of Moneyball. It is quite possible for Beane to make a bad trade. In fact, he’s made two of them with Jim Hendry alone in about 357 days. This is why articles like the one written by Tom Fornelli on Fanhouse entitled “What Does Billy Beane Know That We Don’t?” are stupid. And here’s why.
When I first found out yesterday that the Oakland Athletics had traded Rich Harden to the Cubs, my first reaction was “Why?” I didn’t even know who Oakland had gotten in return from the Cubs, and already the deal didn’t make that much sense to me.
Brilliant. So, if the Cubs had traded Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome to the A’s, picked up all of their salaries, and gotten Harden in return, your reaction would have been “Why?” I wish you were general manager of the Cardinals.
Then I heard who the A’s got, and the deal made even less sense to me.
Let me break it down for you. Your hero Billy Beane got depantsed by Jim Hendry, just like he was on July 16, 2007, when he traded the useful Jason Kendall to the Cubs for the completely worthless Rob Bowen(er) and Jerry Blevins. Though Bowen(er)(time) finished the 2007 season with the A’s on a high note, he’s back to absolute suck in 2008, as his current .222/.271/.311 line evidences. In the 7.3 innings Blevins has pitched, he has put up a 6.14 ERA and a 1.636 WHIP. Woof.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Matt Murton has the potential to flourish in Oakland as he’s finally found an organization that can appreciate what he’s capable of (Matt has struggled this season, but does still have a career OPS of .810 without ever getting regular playing time)…
I appreciate what he’s capable of. He’s capable of looking overmatched by the following: 95+ m.p.h. fastballs, routine pop flies, and the rules of baseball when he’s on the basepaths. Also, can you take your “he never had regular playing time” bullshit over to the former-letter? The dude played 144 games in 2006 and collected 455 at-bats. He hit okay. Not great, but okay. He fielded like a statue. The guy doesn’t have the power numbers to play left field like a miniature Adam Dunn.
…and Sean Gallagher could end up being a very effective pitcher for the Athletics.
Yes, he could. So, you think the A’s got two quality players? I’m not quite sure why you’re baffled by this deal so far.
Eric Patterson is probably just an insurance plan should Mark Ellis not re-sign with the team after the season, as the A’s are pretty thin at second base in the minors, and I don’t know anything about John Donaldson.
Yeah, don’t bother trying to learn anything about him. It’s not like you have the internet available to you to learn something before you wrote an article EVALUATING THE TRADE. I’m going to write a full-length review of the entire Battlestar Galactica series, despite the fact that I’ve only watched 4/5ths of the first season. It’ll be BRILLIANT!
But why now, Billy Beane? Why pull the trigger on this deal when your team is only five games out of first place in the AL West, and only 3.5 behind Boston for the wild card? There is no way that Beane can honestly think his team has a better shot at making the playoffs this season without Rich Harden.
Well, if you could be bothered to do any research, you would know that apparently the Cubs were the only team sniffing around Harden. It’s quite possible that both Beane and Hendry were aware that each start that Harden made with the A’s diminished his value to another team. Since they’re GMs. And you’re just some dude. You see, more starts = more value. Fewer starts = less value.
Yet, while on the surface this deal makes absolutely no sense to me…
It would make even less sense to you if you were aware of the fact that Chad Gaudin was also traded to the Cubs.
…I also realize that Beane knows what he’s doing and I want to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Oh, good. Because I’m sure Beane would be DEVASTATED if he thought you, Tom Fornelli, weren’t his biggest supporter.
Maybe he’s just tired of being held hostage by Harden’s injury history and is tired of having to build a team around a pitcher who may or may not be available at any given time.
Or maybe he realizes, like Hendry does, that a history of injuries diminishes the trade value of a Major League Baseball player.
If you look at Beane’s history of letting his pitchers go, he seems to have great timing, as Mark Mulder and Barry Zito have never been the same since leaving the bay area.
Good comparison. Except for one problem. The only two teams who weren’t aware that Mulder and Zito were on the decline BEFORE they left Oakland were the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Francisco Giants. What’s your explanation for the success of Tim Hudson in Atlanta? Or Aaron Harang in Cincinnati? Or Dan Haren in Arizona? Oh, those guys don’t prove your half-assed, poorly-thought-out point? I see.
It’s still way too early to tell if this was a mistake or not, but I have to say, at the moment I don’t think this was one of Beane’s finest moment.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. I just got whiplash. When the hell did this turn into an article AGAINST Beane? Just this last sentence? That’s one hell of a flip-flop. Since it’s still too early for you, let me get you up to speed. This was a great trade for the Cubs, and a bad trade for the A’s. Sometimes, Billy Beane makes the occasional boneheaded move.
Got it?
Good.
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Comments
JayBandit You have to realize Fornelli is a huge White Sox fan. He doesn’t follow the Cubs with much vigor at all; so, I cut him a bit of slack on this article for that.
*IAN Dick Hardon is handsome. Matt Murton is handsome. It’s an even swap. What’s not to get?
Mike D. Good piece, Kerm, but do you really want to use the Kendall trade as an example of Beane being pantsed? That guy sucked worse than dry rot for us.
*IAN I was gonna defend Kerm here, but after looking through Barrett’s and Bowener’s stats compared to Kendall’s, you can hardly say that Beane was depantsed by this trade.
However, Kendall added a bit of stability for the playoff run, and his degree suck was enough to get Lou to start Geo and the rest is history.
Who's Tom Fornelli Why would you waste your time dissecting a piece from some clown for AOL fanhouse? What’s next, going through MLBlogs? “I can’t believe CubsFanJoe thinks Mike Fontenot should be an All-Star!”
Bad Kermit Yes, I do. Kendall caught more pitches than he missed (unlike Barrett) and had 2350% of the number of hits for the Cubs that Bowen(ertime) did. Even though Kendall wasn’t particularly good, what they had before was SO bad, it ended up being a substantial upgrade for the Cubs.
Kendall as a Cub: .270/.362/.356
Barrett as a Cub: .256/.307/.427, 2,013 passed balls
Bowen(ertime) as a Cub: .065/.167/.097
Hill as a Cub: .161/.231/.269
Since the A’s got garbage in return, I consider that a pretty one-sided trade.
Section 242 I find it boring to be in first place by 4.5 games at the All Star break too. Kind of makes me miss 2006.
BigFlax Yeah, it’s not like every trade Beane’s ever made has worked out great for him. Take a look at what he got for Tim Hudson some time - holy shit. That package makes this one look robust, and Hudson didn’t have a history of injuries.
Anyway, what people don’t seem to realize is that Beane takes into account talent-to-payroll ratio as much as simply “talent.” Gallagher may not be as good as Harden, but he also makes what, 350 grand? Harden makes 4.75 million this year (third-highest on the A’s) and seven million next year, and then he’s a free agent; Gallagher is under A’s control for several more years. Similar deals with Murton, Patterson, and Donaldson. The A’s, who care about money, traded two guys making about 6.5 million bucks this year combined and with a total of 3 years or so of franchise control left to the Cubs, who care a lot less about money than the A’s do, for four guys making maybe 1.5 million total and with like 9-10 total years of franchise control left. When you’re a team that cares a lot about payroll and relative value, saving 5 million bucks this year while losing very little in actual value over the next three or four - if you assume that Gallagher can be a #3 starter, Donaldson an eventual starting catcher, and Murton or Patterson at least decent utility players if not eventual starters - that’s actually not a bad deal.
In other words, the Cubs won the talent end, but the A’s probably feel they won the value end. I think both sides got pretty much exactly what they wanted. It’s stupid to assume that any Billy Beane deal that doesn’t look good on its face must involve some sort of trickery on his part. He makes trades to make his team better, as does any GM, but he also makes a lot of trades for monetary reasons, and those don’t always work out. (Again, see the Hudson trade; the Harang trade was also a bust for him long-term, although Harang hadn’t had any real success in Oakland.) At the same time, there’s no reason to suggest that he got “bamboozled” here, either; I doubt he felt he was making his team substantially worse in 2008 and probably felt he was making it better in 2009 and 2010.
Bay Area Not to mention that Barry Zito STILL STAYED IN ME WHEN HE LEFT THE A’S.
I love the lazy use of other place names like me. Hint: I do include San Francisco…..in fact “San Francisco” goes in front of my name.
Ryan Beariot so why didnt they have a cub fan evaluate the trade? i thought fanhouse had one of those….
Jiraiya Without BK’s amusing commentary, this douche’s original article would have given me brain damage. But then, I probably never would have seen it in the first place. So…thank you?
Connor Last night on ESPN Mariotti posited that Billy Beane can “tell Harden is about to get hurt again”. So. You know. That’s a definite possibility.
Blue-Eyed Monster Too bad Billy Beane hasn’t had the same powers of prognostication with the rest of the A’s roster.
JackB Everyone acts like the Cubs and the rest of the free world don’t know the risks that come along with acquiring Rich Harden. He’s been on the DL six times in the past three years. That’s why the deal didn’t get done until Beane threw in Gaudin. In addition to knowing the facts about Harden, the Cubs also got access to his medical records and like any other frigging trade I’m aware of, Harden had to pass a fucking PHYSICAL before the deal was, er, consummated. True, every now and again, teams get hosed, as in the Reds with Gary Majewski. Shit happens. Personally I think Jim showed some savvy with this deal, waiting to offer Gallagher, and then wanting some insurance from the As in case Harden’s arm goes flying off into the stands like a busted maple bat. Everybody wins here. The Cubs get Harden, a stud when healthy, and Gaudin, who can slide into the rotation if any of the front five get hurt. Hell, Gaudin is already miles ahead of Jason Marquis. The As get a young potential #3 in Gallagher, a guy who hits for average and a little power in Murton, even if he can’t field (hell, it’s the AL, who cares anyway), Lil Strut, and some catcher we don’t need who may or may not pan out. As BigFlax pointed out, this move saves the As money over the next several seasons. Anyone who thinks Beane bilked us is out of their minds.
JackB Oh and incidentally, I read that the two games Harden’s velocity dropped in, he pitched on short rest in each of those occasions. As careful as the Cubs have been with pitch counts and rest this year, I expect Lou and Larry to keep a close eye on him. Unlike Dusty, who would have just let this kid turn his arm into hamburger by the end of September.
Uncle Bouncy Thank you Kermit for posting this…I’m getting really sick of the Moneyball fanatics who know think that it is THE ONLY WAY TO WIN…
Guess what?
Baseball is such a great game that there are a lot of ways to win
For cripes sake, the Baltimore Orioles used to win by making the ground hard in front of home plate and bouncing the ball over the infielders
And don’t give me that Boston has won using Moneyball…that’s bullshirt
They won by SPENDING CASH
Ask the Yankees…that is the most consistent way to win in baseball
Get better players than the other teams
CT
bocaj
BigFlax
StPatrick
TDubbs
Who’s John Donaldson?