Debunking the Soriano Myth
The past week or so may have been the most baseball week I can remember in a long time. Excluding October of 2005 or October of 2006, of course, when everyone in baseball went on vacation. Since I’m bored as hell and no one seems to be at work this week, I guess now is as good a time as any to address the “Soriano can’t hit anywhere but leadoff” argument. Because it’s a dumb argument. Dummy.
Here is the simplified argument. Because Alfonso Soriano has batted leadoff for most of his career, and has seemingly more productive numbers in that position in the order than in any other position, he should bat leadoff.
Horseshit.
That makes no sense. Moving Soriano down in the lineup does not magically cause him to forget how to hit. This isn’t LaTroy Hawkins trying to close. Soriano isn’t a headcase. Yeah, he initially resisted the move to the outfield from second base. Who wouldn’t? The man had potential Hall of Fame-caliber offensive numbers for a second baseman. Not so much for an outfielder. Once he stopped resisting the position change, Soriano transitioned into one of the better defensive outfielders out there, as evidenced by his MLB-leading 19 assists in 2007. I’m aware that the move has nothing to do with his bat. I’m just pointing out that the move didn’t send a stream of piss trickling down his legs. He’s a big boy, and he has adapted to far more drastic change (yes, learning to play an entirely new position after twenty years of playing baseball is a far more drastic change than moving down four lineup spots).
If you look at his splits, Soriano has fewer than 1/4 of the at-bats at any other position in the order than he does at leadoff. It seems to me that managers have heard the “Soriano has to lead off” rumors, have tried to move him, and have panicked if the guy doesn’t immediately hit .400 a home run every five at-bats. Hell, even Lou panicked last year after putting Soriano down in the lineup for only nine games (and only two games in the five spot).
Soriano is a free-swinger with a lot of power. Isn’t that exactly the type of guy you want in the fifth spot in the order? Aren’t you specifically looking for a guy up there to drive the ball rather than to take a walk? You don’t care much if your five hitter gets on base. I’m not interested in setting the table for the “sluggers” like Ryan Theriot and Felix Pie. You want that guy being aggressive so they can’t pitch around him to get to guys like Rob Bowen (I had to say Bowen after looking at the 2007 lineups and noticing that Lou trotted out these two piece of shit lineups on consecutive days):
Soriano-LF
Fontenot-2B
Lee-DH
Ward-1B
DeRosa-3B
Bowen-C
Pagan-RF
Pie-CF
Theriot-SS
Soriano-LF
Fontenot-2B
Lee-1B
Ramirez-DH
DeRosa-3B
Bowen-C
Pagan-RF
Pie-CF
Izturis-SS
Yikes.
Moreover, Soriano’s career numbers in the five-hole look fine to me: .268/.312/.513 with a 162-game average of 37 home runs and 117 RBIs. I’ll take that out of my five hitter. To compare, the five hitter for the largest number of games last year (granted, only ten games) was Cliff Floyd. In that spot, he went .272/.335/.442 with 6 HR and 21 RBIs in 46 games. That translates into 21 HR and 74 RBIs over the course of a full season.
So, in an admittedly small sample size, Soriano has hit just fine for a power guy in the five-spot over the course of his career. Soriano led the team in home runs last year, and I suspect he would have easily driven in over 100 RBIs if he would have been down in the lineup. His power and OBP numbers suggest to me that he’s a middle-of-the-order guy (ideally suited for the five-hole).
If the Cubs get Brian Roberts, moving Soriano down in the lineup is a total no-brainer. Even if they don’t, though, if I were Lou, I’d put Soriano in the five spot, tell him he’s staying there, and watch how he responds.
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