Well, the Cubs finally broke Lou Piniella’s brain. After yesterday’s loss, George Castle asked Lou a reasonable question about whether Lou considered bunting Marlon Byrd to third base with no outs in the bottom of the 8th inning while trailing by a run. Bunting in that situation is a completely reasonable baseball strategy that would have made perfect sense. Left-handed hitter Mike Fontenot was at the plate, however, so Lou said this:
I get what Lou is saying. All Fontenot needed to do was pull the ball on the ground to the right side to advance Byrd. And then you would have had Byrd at third base with one out. Sort of like if you bunted him over in that situation, which would probably be much, much easier to do. Fontenot predictably popped out to the shortstop. The Cubs failed to drive in Byrd, and they lost by a run. Would they have won if Fontenot had bunted Byrd over to third base? WITHOUT A DOUBT, 100%, YES, THEY DEFINITELY WOULD HAVE WON, AND YOU CANNOT QUESTION THAT INEVITABILITY.
Lou has lost his mind. It was a simple, fair question. As much of a dope as Castle can be, he didn’t say anything that anyone wasn’t thinking. Let Lou go play golf so he doesn’t have to watch the rest of this disastrous season unfold as quality start after quality start is wasted on this pitiful offense.
It’s Jim Essian time.
Looks to me like the thrill is gone for Lou.
First, he exposes himself, then the Zambrano move, now this. Clearly, he’s trying to get fired.
Let Lou go play on his yacht and have Hendry manage the rest of the year. No change in cost and let the guy responsible for the mess actually deal with it.
Let’s forget that bunting the guy over is the high percentage way to score ONE run. It decreases the odds of scoring more than one run. Byrd’s run would have only tied the game. Let’s forget that Tracy struck out and Theriot popped out so if those events remained unchanged then Byrd would have never scored anyway.
I’m not a big fan of the sacrifice bunt. You only get so many outs in a game, so why give any away? If the pitcher is up and he’s poor hitter, have him sacrifice. You need one run for the win, then maybe you sacrifice bunt. Otherwise, have your hitters be smart and patient and play for the big inning.
What someone may have wanted to ask Lou was why he felt obligated to go with the lefty hitter, in particular Chad Tracy, in that situation. He removed Koyie Hill who is a switch hitter so the lefty-right match up was moot. Hill is hitting about .300 and Tracy is hitting way under .200. What was the advantage in this move? Meanwhile, Lou is going to have to bring in Geo to catch. That would be the Geo Soto who is hitting over .350 and gets on base in over half his at bats. Despite the fact that you wouldn’t have the lefty-righty advantage, I’d like Geo’s odds in that situation. And then he doesn’t do any kind of switches to get Geo an at-bat in the ninth. What the hey is that? Though I suppose the Cubs have to continue to show confidence in Lee and Ramirez even though they’ve been mired in slumps.
So those would have been better things to ask about than whether Fontenot should have bunted.
@FrankS – A tie game in baseball obviously favors the home team. The way this club has been scoring runs, and considering Lou has one of his most durable starters sitting down in the bullpen, I would have taken my chances in extras. And you can’t look at it retroactively. Of course the Cubs wouldn’t have scored, because they’re terrible. But I would have rather taken my chances with a long sac fly than a base hit to tie the game.
Regardless, Lou has been doing this a long time. Did he really not expect that question to at least be asked? I think he’s tired of this team already. Join the club, Lou.
If this team is so terrible, how could any of us expect ANYONE (except Colvin, only because I’ve seen him execute well both times he’s tried this season) to lay a fucking bunt down. And also, fundamentals on the base paths is not exactly our strong suit (would not be an issue if we didn’t have so many crickity bastards on the bases – blessing or curse?), Byrd may get caught napping or in a pickle and…screw it, so many damn scenarios in baseball. And that’s why I love it.
Pitiful offense? But what about Rudy Jota? I thought he was going to stop tolerating this offensive bullshit!
Reading between the lines, I think Lou was just taking out his hatred for Fontenot on Castle. Seriously, if you can’t pull the ball through the right side there, just move into a burning barn.
Didn’t the Cubs have a bases loaded 1 out situation, and get no runs? I’m not sure I’d trust this team to come through if Byrd was bunted over. Plus, Lou was actually playing the percentages: http://www.tangotiger.net/retrosheet/reports/re.htm
Run Expectancy for man on second with no outs: 1.123
Run Expectancy for man on third with one out: 0.953
George Castle wants Lou to play an old style of bunting people over whenever it actually decreases a team’s chances of scoring runs.
@Irish Yeti – Wrong. It doesn’t decrease their chance of scoring a run. It decreases their chance of scoring more than one run. The numbers are like 65% that a run will score with a guy on 3rd and 1 out and 61% with a guy on 2nd and no outs.
Now, as Dolan correctly pointed out in his haste to defend his man-crush, that’s assuming Fontenot gets the bunt down 100% of the time. But he’s a goddamn Major League hitter (allegedly). He should be able to bunt.
@Bad Kermit – you are expecting him to start playing like a major league player now?
@santo10 – And therein lies the rub.
Did somebody say rub?
Where!???
Odds of scoring a run in that situation is almost exactly the same whether you bunt or not. And, of course, not bunting increases chances of scoring more than one run. With left-handed batter, the odds tilt even further. Lou made the right move. Dumb ass Fontentot had to avoid striking out or hitting weakly to left side. He didn’t.
I for one do not want Lou fired yet. If this season is going to suck on the field, then I want to see just how far Lou is willing to get out of it.
I was watching the 2000 CWS game with Fontenot and Theriot. It was the 9th inning; tha game was tied. Theriot singled, and Fontenot was up. The announcer explained that the coach doesn’t ever want Fontenot to bunt, because it will result in a forceout, the reason being that Fontenot is known to beat out bunts, so the fielder will throw to the base ahead of the runner. He went on to explain that Fontenot was clocked at 4.0 in the 40 yard dash, and is faster than all of his team-mates, so he had the green light to hit. He drew a walk and advanced Theriot. That said, the Cubs rarely have anyone bunt, except for weak-hitting pitchers. If Fontenot had bunted, and advanced the runner, he would have been stranded at third.
What? Theriot and Fontenot played college baseball together?!?! Well, that’s the first i’ve heard of that!
despite the payroll, this team does not have a tremendous amount of talent. A team without talent needs to play fundamental baseball or they (and more importantly the fans) are going to get kicked in the jimmy all season. Bunt the ball, try to score the run, tie the game and see what happens…especially late in the game.
If Lee and Ramirez were hitting, this team would have plenty of talent. Why Lou can’t move those guys down in the order or give them a fews days off is a major problem.
@Edelweiss – 4.0 40 my ass. There’s no way he’d be playing 2nd (allegedly) if he had 4.0 speed. He’d probably be playing for the Raiders.