Did you almost turn off the TV Friday night when Aramis Ramirez went down? Did you curse, in the following order: (1) God, (2) Jim Hendry, and (3) Barry Rozner? I spent most of Saturday thinking about how screwed the Cubs are. Losing Aramis for any significant period of time is way worse than losing Carlos Zambrano. And the Cubs have lost them both. Aramis is the most valuable player on the Cubs, and he was off to a ridiculous .364/.417/.591 start. Now, the Cubs are stuck with at least eight weeks of either Aaron Miles or Farney in the starting lineup. So, is it already time to start looking toward 2010?
Not yet, but a lot of shit either has to change in short order or stay exactly the same if they want to stay in the race.
1a. Neal Cotts
I don’t care how it gets done. I don’t care who replaces him. I don’t care if the Cubs decide to go with an all-right-handed bullpen. I don’t care if God himself declares Neal Cotts “The Chosen One” and tells Jim Hendry that He guarantees the Cubs will win the World Series if they keep Neal Cotts on the roster. If that happened, I can assure you that either: (1) some guy is trying to get into Hendry’s pants by dressing up like God, or (2) God is full of shit. No team will ever win the World Series with Neal Cotts on their roster. Don’t even bring up the canceled 2005 playoffs to me, asshead.
Cotts is more worthless than Ron Santo’s play-by-play. He’s more worthless than tickets to the Bulls-Magic series. He’s more worthless than all of Chad Fox’s arm surgeries. Cotts’ WHIP is 2.550 this year. Do you realize what that means? If Cotts pitches a full inning, you’re almost guaranteed to either see a bases-loaded situation, or see some runs score.
GO AWAY, NEAL COTTS.
1b. David Patton
AND TAKE DAVID PATTON WITH YOU!
The Cub bullpen is WAY too thin to be trying to hide a guy like David Patton at the end of it. The longer Jim Hendry pretends this guy is Major League-ready, the worse it hurts the team.
2. Geovany Soto
Where in the hell is Geovany Soto? The reigning NL Rookie of the Year looks absolutely mystified at the plate this year, and he’s “turned it around” in May to the tune of a .258/.343/.290 line. Yay?
The Cubs have managed to gut their way to a 17-14 record (only one win off their 2008 pace, by the way) with Koyie Hill being a legitimately better option at the plate than Soto is. Take that fact as either very encouraging or extremely discouraging. Since you’re Cubs fans, I suspect I know what you’ll do with it.
Now that Ramirez is out, it would be an awfully convenient time for Soto to start hitting.
3. Albert Pujols
I would bet my sparkling reputation that Albert Pujols eats horse steroids soaked in fetal blood as his morning breakfast. If that guy dressed as God trying to bone Hendry is out there, please let this mutant get caught and suspended. I don’t think the Cardinals are this good, anyhow, but losing Pujols would finish that team.
4. Kosuke Fukudome
If there has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, it is Alfonso Soriano Kosuke Fukudome. Fukudome went absolutely apeshit in April, with a .338/.461/.592 line to go along with 4 home runs, 15 RBIs, 16 walks, and only 15 strikeouts. Then, he was horrible to start off May, and we re-boxed all those “Fukudome is my Homie” t-shirts we’d dusted off.
But, in case you haven’t noticed, he’s bounced back. In the last week, he’s gone .353/.476/.529. I’d still prefer he hit second if/when Aramis comes back, but for now, he’s the best option Lou Piniella has for the three spot in the lineup. I doubt he continues hitting at this pace, but I think he’ll have a much better 2009 than his 2008. And if you’re not at all convinced that Fukudome can vastly improve from his rookie year to his sophomore year, take a look at Hideki Matsui’s numbers.
5. Derrek Lee
Derrek Lee was the anti-Fukudome, as he struggled through an ice-cold April before starting to heat up in May (.294/.400/.706). He absolutely has to start hitting, especially if Lou is going to continue to hit him near the top of the lineup. I’m not quite ready to say something as silly as “Hoffpauir should be starting.” Not QUITE ready. If Lee even comes close to his .281/.365/.495 career averages with around 25 homers and 85 RBIs, I’ll be dancing in the streets. If he doesn’t start driving the ball soon, I think Lou seriously needs to consider getting Hoffpauir more starts against righties. It’s stupid to advocate a straight platoon right now, but Lee is mashing lefties in a small number of at-bats against them, and Hoffpauir is crushing righties.
I’m not saying. I’m just saying.
FUN FACT: Did you realize that Hoffpauir’s first name is actually James?
6. Milton Bradley
Hey, guess what? Milton Bradley is starting to hit. In the last seven games, he’s put up a .286/.348/.476 line and collected 4 of his 6 RBIs on the year. More of that, please, Milt. I love Milton, and I think he’s going to be terrific as a Cub. Maybe on this homestand, the “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” Cubs fans will actually look at his numbers and answer, “Oh. Been pretty good, I see.”
Can Soto + Lee + Milton coming out of their month-long funks balance out the loss of Aramis? It would certainly go a long way to help.
7. Angel Guzman
DON’T. GET. HURT. In case you haven’t noticed, Angel Guzman has been the best pitcher in the Cub bullpen. Yes, I’m including Carlos Marmol. Guzman’s WHIP is a minuscule .981, and he’s striking out three guys for every one he walks. Because of that, Lou is going to start using him more and more. And because of THAT, you all need to pray for Guzman’s fragile arm.
8. Ryan Dempster
Hey, shithead? You got your big contract at the cost of Kerry Wood. Start pitching like you deserve it. Right now, the two best pitchers in the Cubs’ starting rotation are Ted Lilly and Sean Marshall. I love Lilly and Marshall as much as the next guy, but they cannot be the best starters on a playoff-caliber team.
The same goes for you, Rich Harden. I don’t pay you to give up runs. In fact, I don’t pay you at all.
9. Farney
Farney’s not particularly good at anything but playing a lute in the woods to ensure that the harvest is bountiful. And he’s always after me Lucky Charms. But he can’t be worse than Mike Fontenot at third base defensively, and at least he (hopefully) keeps Aaron Miles the hell out of the lineup. I’m sure Farney will piss off impatient Cubs fans with his performance at the plate, but I’m sure he’ll cement his status in Cub lore the first time he launches himself ten rows into the stands to miss a foul ball. One way or another, Cubs fans want blood.
10. Kevin Gregg
Kevin Gregg is a mouthbreathing Mongoloid, but even he is starting to show signs of not being as terrible as we think. After putting up a 5.59 ERA and 1.966 WHIP through April, he has a 1.59 ERA and 1.059 ERA in the early part of May. He’s also double his strikeouts to walks ratio from 1.50 to 3.00.
And I couldn’t believe this when I saw it, but Gregg only had ONE goddamn save in all of April. He has 5 in 5 chances (6 outings) in May. The 6th would have been a save if Chad Fox had been allowed to face one more batter and allow one more run before Gregg came in to bail him out. The Cubs are 6-0 in May when Gregg has made an appearance.
11. Aaron Miles
Useless. Totally useless. It is a damn shame that BOBBY SCALES has only played three minor league games at shortstop in his career. As far as I can tell, Aaron Miles’ “ability” to play short is the only thing keeping him on the roster. If I had my druthers, I’d seriously cut Miles and sign Mark Grudzielanek right now. I’m not even joking. Mark has to be in better “baseball shape” than Aaron, unless “like a pear” is how you want your baseball shaped.
If you want an actual shortstop instead of Grudzielanek, what about Andres Blanco? He’s an average if unspectacular .299/.340/.423 in Iowa right now, but he’d look like Babe Fucking Ruth next to Miles. He can also cover shortstop, second, and third. Also, this team has not made the playoffs under Lou Piniella WITHOUT a player named Blanco on the roster. Think about it.
12. The DOOMsayers
It was a shitty weekend. I’m not disputing that. Even if the Cubs had swept the Brewers, losing Aramis on Friday night would have ruined my whole weekend. But the Cubs DID just manage a winning road series (3-2). They’re a game over .500 on the road, and two games over at Wrigley Field. They’re still only 2.5 games out of first. They’re 7-3 in May after a 10-11 April. I wouldn’t quite write this team off yet.
It’s going to be tough to keep winning without Aramis, but this team has not played it’s best baseball yet. Now might be a good time to do so.
I’m cross-posting to HJE now?
Try to keep up, Dolan. That was last week. When you refer to yourself, as being posted by someone else, is that the fifth person? The sixth?
Anyway, on to this post…
I like your analysis, especially the part where things have to change or stay exactly the same.
@Andy – They DO have to change, unless they don’t.
Fun trivia fact:
The Cubs have the 3rd largest payroll in baseball, according to CBS Sports.
The Cardinals are 45 million behind the Cubs in payroll.
The one thing that I don’t like about the “only one game off last year’s pace!” thing (and I heard it on the WGN postgame on Sunday, too): last year’s team, almost immediately after this point, ripped off a pretty dominant stretch to blow way above .500 and stay there. They also added a raking Jim Edmonds and didn’t lose Ramirez (although they did lose Soriano for a similar amount of time). I don’t see any signs of the ’09 Cubs adding a piece anywhere near as valuable as Edmonds was last year unless Farney starts taking steroids.
The Cubs aren’t going to be as dominant as last year, without question; but the Cardinals are not nearly as good as everyone thinks, either. I still think it will be a tight race all season. Lots of ulcers and gray hairs before it’s all said and done. Getting to October is the important thing. Once you’re there, it’s anyone’s game.
@BigFlax –
Seriously?
In their 20 games after they started 18-13 last year the Cubs went 12-8, and Edmonds hit .239 with a homer, 3 RBI and .626 OPS in May.
Then they got hot towards the end of May through mid June until they lost Soriano for a month.
Then they lost Zambrano to the DL for the first time.
They had injuries last year, too and they got through them. So the “pace” number doesn’t mean less just because they added a 38 year old outfielder last year.
@Andy – Plus, Edmonds is still available, if they feel compelled to add him.
“Are the Cubs Totally Screwed?”
No.
Hendry has not been returning my phone calls. I’m starting to think it has something to do with the half-shirt I bought him for Christmas.
Third base aside, I’ll be goddamned if the harvest isn’t bountiful this year.
@Andy – Okay, I didn’t bother looking it up at the time; Edmonds didn’t start hitting until the end of May. The point is, Edmonds had a .937 OPS and 19 homers in 85 games for the Cubs last year. And after they were 18-14 last year, they won 10 of their next 13, rising to 28-17. Then they lost four of five; then they won 16 of their next 20.
Yes, that could still happen; the rest of the month looks fairly easy outside the trip to St. Louis and June doesn’t freak me out although I’m not sure what to expect from the interleague games. My main concern is judging this season by last season’s pace when last season’s pace was, within a couple weeks, dramatically affected by the addition of a guy who turned out to be a pretty important piece. I’m not a total DOOMsayer, though. If Soto and Bradley start hitting (for that matter, throw in Fontenot, who has been kind of quietly sucking), that could be the equivalent of adding Edmonds for this year’s team, and if Fukudome can manage not to fall off a cliff this year, it could be the same deal. I’m hardly burying the Cubs here. I’m just concerned about making any serious judgments based on what happened a year ago.
What’s wrong with my play-by-play?!?
Aw jeez.
GAHD!!!
Nothing that a meteor targeting the radio broadcast booth couldn’t fix.
Sorry, Pat.
Santo does play-by-play?? YIKES.
Santo does “Color Commentary.”
I do the play by play you morans.