The Curious Case of Derrek Lee
There are over three weeks until Opening Day, but the Cubs roster is mostly set. Such is life for a team enjoying period of stability that is rare for our lifetimes. There are some positions that are still up in the air–the second base spot that originally looked like an Aaron Miles/Mike Fontenot platoon is starting to look it’s Fontenot’s position exclusively. There’s still time for our favorite garden gnome to cool off and give Lou some thought to splitting at-bats with Miles, but right now Fontenot is making a case to play everyday. As the Swinging Ballerina is off playing in the WBC, he hasn’t managed to twirl his way out of a centerfielder platoon with Reed Johnson. Koyie Hill’s hot start to the Spring is giving all of us hope that we may yet be spared the Paul Bako Sequel, “Gabor Strikes (Out) Again”. Assuming that the Cubs head north with twelve pitchers, that leaves So Taguchi and Joey Gaithright (darkhorse: SAM FULD) to fight over the 5th outfielder spot, while Jake Fox, Micah Hoffpauer, and Corey Koskie (dark horse: BOBBY SCALES) fight over the 6th infielder spot.
In other words, there’s not a lot of intrigue this Spring. While this lack of excitement causes many of the twits in the local media to try to manufacture some drama, for most of us it is a welcome calm, as we can begin to turn our attention to beyond Spring Training. And when I turn my attention to the impending season, there is one guy that strikes me as an enigma and in spite of his reliability over the years, he is possibly their biggest wildcard.
What to make of Derrek Lee?
Beginning with the 2000 season, his third in the big leagues, Derrek Lee had been one of the steadiest hitters in the National League. From 2000 to 2004, Lee played nearly every day and put up consistent stats. His average numbers–.276/.365/.497, 28 HR, 84 RBI, 86 Runs scored–closely coincide with his median numbers: .270 (2002)/.368 (2000)/.504 (2004), 28 HR (2000), 86 RBI (2002) and 90 Runs scored (2004). Indeed, if any player seemed like a predictable player for the statnerds at Baseball Prospectus to project after 2004, it’d have been Derrek Lee.
And yet. And yet. Derrek went out in 2005 and done blowed up Nate Silver’s Macintosh G5. In an otherwise dreary, Dusty Baker-led sleepwalk of a season for the team, Lee gave Cub fans some reason for joy: .335/.418/.662, 46 HR, 107 RBI and 120 runs scored. Had that toothpick-chewing charlatan not gone out of his way to demonstrate just how criminally stupid he was in batting Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson in front of Lee for large chunks of the season, our guy Derrek may have had a shot at the Triple Crown.
Having turned 30 in September of the 2005 season, it was reasonable to believe that Lee had simply put it all together and had reached a new level. Even if these numbers were a bit outsized, a minor regression would still keep him above his previous five-year average.
Of course, thanks to the dangerous combination of an out-of-shape sloth, a reckless alcoholic and a slow-rolling grounder at Dodger Stadium, we may never know if 2005 was an aberration or the beginning of an incredible run. For the collision between Rafael Furcal and Lee not only put a sudden end to to Lee’s hot streak, but it likely hampered Lee’s power for when he did return.
Lee managed to come back in June and eventually get over 100 at bats for the season. Nobody expected his power to return so soon after breaking his wrist and it didn’t. For Cub fans, this was reminiscent of another star player whose power was still on the shelf even after he came off it. What was frustrating here was that in the following season, 2007, Lee’s power was still lagging. While his slugging percentage of .513 was actually higher than in any of his seasons from 2000-2004 (and his OPS of .913 ranked only second to the 1.080 he put up in his breakout 2005 season), Lee hit only 22 home runs. Cub fans old enough to remember the late Bobby Murcer couldn’t help but flashback to 1978 after seeing so many of Lee’s shots die on the warning track.
Still, though, there wasn’t much reason for alarm. One year removed from the broken wrist, Lee seemed to be getting back to where he was when he took off. The home runs, one figured, would probably come back with another year of healing. The fact that Lee’s batting average, OBP and slugging pct. had otherwise ranked up there behind his 2005 season would seem a pretty good indicator that Lee was back on track.
Which is what made last season troubling. His OBP of .361 ranked below his five-year average from 2000-2004, and his .462 slugging percentage and 20 home runs were his lowest since 1999. It would also be hard to make the case that this was due to the wrist. For one, he was now two years removed from the incident. For another, he was coming off a season where all of his non-home run totals crept back closer to a career-high.
So was 2008 simply Lee’s bizarro 2005, or is he merely a player in decline whose numbers from here on out are going to remind us of Mark Grace? A doubles hitting first baseman? Don’t get me wrong–on a team with Ramirez, Soriano and Bradley, one could do a lot worse than a slick-fielding first sacker who puts up a .290/.360.460 line. It’s just a little jarring, what with that 2005 season still in our memories. It’s also probably not the best idea to keep batting Lee third if he’s putting up that line.
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BigFlax
PenFoe
StPatrick
CT
CactusMcHarris
46 HR’s to 22 HR’s… I hate to bring this up, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was enhanced by a certain substance known to him as “boli” or some type of flaxseed oil. He does seem much leaner these days… Hopefully he’ll put up some good numbers and make me look like the douche bag I am for even throwing that out there about him.
Oh yeah, and I will remember Lee for the double plays he hit into rather then the doubles since the wrist injury.
Unforunately, the comparison to Mark Grace seems apt. I really like this year’s team, and I agree that there should be enough punch in the lineup to make up a lack of power production out of the first baseman. But if A-Ram goes down, we’re going to be in even more serious trouble than we might have been otherwise if our first baseman isn’t producing. I really like this team, especially if Soriano and, by some miracle, Hardin, both stay healthy and it would be a crying shame to see us underachieve because Lee turns into a hole in the lineup.
The fact that I really ilke Lee as a guy doesn’t ameliorate what seem to be his eroding offensive skills, and I’m really not sure how much a first baseman can ever make up for a weak bat with his fielding.
Of course the counter-example is Cokey Hernandez, who in his big years between 82 and 87 never hit many homers, drove in a comparable number of runs when healthy to Lee last year and fielded like a maniac. The only big differences seem to be that Hernandez drew appreciably more walks and never grounded into TWENTY-SEVEN (XXVII) GODDAMN DOUBLE PLAYS (being more selective probably leads to fewer DPs).
LEAVE OLEG OUT OF THIS!
@mlbtvsucks –
It’s fair to make the suggestion. As far as I’m concerned nobody deserves to be above suspicion anymore, sadly. I didn’t want to suggest it in the entry jut because it’s a slippery slope and Lee doesn’t immediately fail my eye test.
985 words replaced with these two:
He’s Blace.
Guys had fluke seasons before steroids – Davey Johnson in 1973, anyone? Who would suddenly start taking steroids the year actual testing began? It’s far more likely that Lee simply got some more balls in the air that year. In 2007 and 2008 he still topped 40 doubles both times, nothing to sneeze at.
That said, unless he turns back into 2005 Lee for a couple seasons – and that doesn’t strike me as likely – he should probably be hitting fifth.
Agreed.
Milty should be a lock in the 3 hole and A-Ram hits cleanup. Derek could be 2 or 5.
Lou wants this righty, lefty,righty, lefty lineup. But having 2 righties back to back followed by a lefty works just as well.
I keep seeing this nonsense of Milty 3, Derek 4 and pushing A-Ram to 5. This is just plain stupid.
What ever he does during the 2009 season lets hope that he cuts down on the damn double plays!
Unfortunately, he’s at an age where the power is likely to decline, not increase. For whatever reason, 2005 is probably going to turn out to be a statistical outlier. And his glove isn’t as good as his reputation anymore, either. Frankly, I heard rumors that Lee was being shopped over the winter, and I think Hendry was smart to do it. That he wasn’t traded may mean that the demand wasn’t there, and other GMs may think his skills are on the wane, too.
Lee could very easily be traded after this offseason. 2010 is his walk year. Despite all the bad contracts Hendry’s gotten into, the D Lee on was excellent as it was a year shorter than was market at the time it was signed.
He’s mostly done. If he plays more then half the game’s I’ll be disappointed.
V: Do you, uh, have anyone in mind to replace Lee? I’m not exactly jazzed about D Lee but on the other hand I don’t really want to see a return to the Hee-seop Choi era.
If Derrek Lee wasn’t 7 feet tall, Lou would bat him 2nd.
Pretty sure at that height you have to bat 3-5.
It’s in the rules somewhere.
Micah is the heir apparent if D-Lee does leave, but as much as we like his bat, I’m not sure that we would be happy about a full time Hoff. at first.
To psychoch: It may be the No-Trade clause Derek has that’s preventing your “rumors” from being realized.
The deamnd wasn’t there? Who told you this rumor, Muskbox?
Good first basemen are a dime a dozen, see Texiera, Mark.
Where is Giambi, mabe we can dig up Frank Thomas?
My name pretty much sums it up.
To heartbreak: Lots of players are traded despite “no trade” clauses. They just have to be paid to waive the clause. The lack of movement proves the lack of demand. I saw the Lee trade rumors all winter, using this same Internet you’re using to read this blog. It really wasn’t a big secret.
I am so disappointed that there’s not a picture of an old, withered Derrek Lee being born.
I thought about that. If I only I knew how to photoshop. I should have dialed up Chuck Dickens’ batphone.
@Bad Kermit – Well, I didn’t know you accepted photoshops even when it is not a photoshop contest…
BTW, like the facelift, just a little puzzled at the color choice.
Granted I’m new to these here Internets, but I don’t recall any D-Lee trade rumors.
Us idiots don’t count. We had Ronny Cedeno being traded for Tim Lincicum. Straight up.
I would love a high average, good doubles hitter, like Gracie and D-Lee, in the 2 hole.
But that would mean moving Theriot to lead-off and moving Alf to 5th, which ain’t gonna happen.
If D-Lee bats 2nd it would eliminate the double play threat. Alf either strikes out or hits a homer.
It’s temporary. I just got frustrated last night and went to bed. I’ll try to fix it tonight.
Let me get this straight. If Lee’s batting second, and Soriano makes an out, and Lee grounds out to short, you’ll be happier because Lee didn’t hit into a double play? Either way the result is two outs and the bases empty, whether it’s from a 6-4-3, or just two separate batters making outs. You can’t be serious, can you? So you’ve eliminated the double play threat, but how, exactly have you improved the batting order?
i suppose tracking his dp’s per year would be too much to ask, and if last year was just weirdly high, and he would hopefully regress to the mean, or if this is the start of the new sadness?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leede02.shtml
hey look at that, only happened 27 times in 623 ABs. less than 5 percent. looking at shandler’s baseball forecaster, i suppose if you look at the percent of grounders, line drives, and flies that he hit, that might also seem to indicate something too. why, is that a 4 percent shift in one year higher in grounders and a 4 percent decrease in fly balls? yes. yes it is. and to sum it all up, is that almost twice as many double plays than he has grounded into in many previous years? yes. so expect some regression to the good mean.
in short, the power outage is worth questioning. the double plays? not so much. and you can use stats to prove anything, 83 percent of the people know that.
I’m not bothered by the double plays per se. I mean, they suck at the time, but they’re generally a reflection of an assload of guys being on base in front of him. I’m sure DLee would have hit in to more DP’s than he did in 2005 had those two baseball idiots Neifi and Corey not been batting ahead of them, and he still would have had an awesome season.
Nah, it’s the power outage that concerns me. Our big strapping first baseman may be battling Mike Fontenot in the home run department if he continues on this downward slope.
I was like, damn, this is one of the best things I’ve ever read on this site. Nice going, Mike.
Ryan: 27 DPs in 600+ ABs actually sounds ridiculously high. So let’s compare D Lee’s 2008 DPs and his career average for hitting into DPs with other NL Central 1st basemen:
D. Lee 2008- 27 (WOW!) Career avg-16 (still seems high)
Pujols 2008 16 Career avg-21
Fielder 2008-12 Career avg 12
Berkman 2008-13 Career avg 12
LaRoche 2008 9 Career avg 14
Votto 2008 6 Career avg 7
Of course, as you point out, statistics can be interpreted in any number of ways and I’m really not sure what grounding into double plays says about a player other than he makes me throw my remote control across the room a lot.* But, with the exception of Pujols, Lee hits into more double plays than any first baseman in the NL Central, and if his power numbers were anywhere near Poohole’s I wouldn’t give a damn how many DPs he was hitting into.
Anyway, as you point out, the real worries are in other areas. Lee has never been very selective, and the last time he drew more than 80 walks was 2005. His OBP fell to .361 in 2008, which is way down from the .418 from 2005 and also down from his career .361. In 2007 and 2008 (seasons with 567 and 623 ABs respectively) he has hit a combined 42 home runs (compared to 46 in 2005, 32 and 31 in the two years before that).
To me, it seems pretty clear that there is absolutely cause for concern regarding Lee’s eroding offensive skills. Like I say, I like the guy and if he has another season like 08 he won’t exactly be dead weight, but it’s absolutely time to start thinking hard about an upgrade at 1st in the near future.
*Also, to be charitable, his career average for DPs is inflated by the 2008 season and if you were to scatter graph it, the 27 would be way the hell up by itself and most of the other seasons would cluster in the mid to high teens. You’re right that DPs are not the biggest worry–the biggest worry is his steadily declining power production.
Career OBP .367 not .361. Ugh.
@psychoch –
Yes psycho, that’s exactly what I meant.
I’m looking to put together a lineup that makes an out 1 through 9.
I want to see a team that scores 1 run or less in 162 games.
Is that your real name?
Nice write-up on DLee. I also like the guy a lot and have a little concern about his declining production. I wouldn’t mind seeing him hitting sixth this year. Even though I’m not all that big on the whole concept, I also think that even though he seems pretty quiet that he’s on of the leaders on the team.
oh i’m not saying the 27 wasnt ridiculously high. i think because it is ridiculous that he should hopefully drop below 20 gidps next year. of further note, stats that i am not quite aware of slash where they would be, would be the percentages of ground ball outs in relation to total ground balls hit, and what those numbers could show (like if he normally hits 20 percent of his GBs safely or soemthing, but last year he only hit like 10, i assume he would regress to the mean.)
also, to any stats head out there looking for good fantasy stats things, i highly recommend ron shandler and the baseball forecaster. good stuff there. he of course, predicts that 08 is the new level for lee.
Please, tell me the last suggestion was a joke. Frank hasn’t played 1B on a regular basis since a month long stretch in ’03 and for most of a season since ’97. Balco Giambi is mostly a DH as well and wouldn’t last in the NL.
Yes, for once I am not trolling.