Fill In the Blanks
So now that everything but home-field advantage has been settled–and, truthfully this, too should be settled in the Cubs’ favor before the weekend–we’ve got a week to turn our attention to the postseason. Today, let’s look at what the postseason roster may look like.
Sure Things
C Geovany Soto
C Hank White
IF Derrek Lee
IF Mike Fontenot
IF Ryan Theriot
IF Aramis Ramirez
IF/OF Mark DeRosa
IF/OF Daryle Ward
OF Alfonso Soriano
OF Reed Johnson
OF Jim Edmonds
OF Kosuke Fukudome
P Ryan Dempster
P Carlos Zambrano
P Ted Lilly
P Rich Harden
P Carlos Marmol
P Kerry Wood
That’s 18.
Very Likely
IF Ronny Cedeno
P Jason Marquis
P Sean Marshall
There is an argument that Marquis has little value if he’s not starting. As much as we’ve heaped abuse on Marquis, he’s actually done a very adequate job as a #5 starter. I’d be willing to bet that he’s out-performed most other #5’s. He’s come up big a few times–most notably when a skidding Cubs team turned to Marquis to snap their-season long six-game losing streak, and Marquis delivered. Besides, as uneven as Jason has been, when one considers some of the “bubble” bullpen guys to be discussed further down, he would seem to be a better choice to come out of the bulpen.
Marshall has sort of been Marquis Light. Not spectacular, but contributing to the teams in various aspects. One of the more overlooked performances by Marshall–indeed, since it was a few months ago may be altogether forgotten–was when he picked up the Cubs after an excruciating blown save by Kerry Wood by styming the Cardinals bats in St. Louis to take the all-important rubber match. For most of the year, Marshall has done the job when asked. It seems that he’s worked his way onto this roster.
And then there’s Ronny Dumbass. Almost by default Cedeno’s pretty much guaranteed a spot on this roster, as he’s the only other guy besides Theriot who can play shortstop. Ronny’s not very bright, and the fear here is that he’s liable to commit some sort of Jerry Dybzinski-like brainfart in a crucial situation but, like I said, what’s saving Ronny’s hide is the fact that he plays a position at which the Cubs are thin. I’m not convinced that Lou would even trust to use Cedeno at all, as just last week he opted to use Marquis ahead of him as a pinch-runner in last Thursday’s extra-inning “near-clincher” against Milwaukee. So Ronny’s essentially “break glass in case of emergency” insurance, that “emergency” being Ryan Theriot’s death.
Still, the thought here is that the above three will in all likelihood make the cut. Which brings the total to 21 and leaves 4 spots. Of those four, conventional wisdom has dictated that teams can go with one fewer pitcher in the rotation, which means the regular rotation of 12 gets trimmed to 11 and thus, 3 of the 4 spots wil go to pitchers. Let’s see what we have here.
“Bubble” Pitchers
Chad Gaudin
Jeff Samardzija
Neal Cotts
Bob Howry
Randy Wells
Michael Wuertz
Kevin Hart
Ange Guzman
Gaudin will probaby make it. In fact, he’d have been a sure thing had he not knocked down a bottle of Wild Turkey and then proceeded to lose a fight with a dumpster in a darkened alley a month ago. Gaudin made his return yesterday and pitched a scoreless inning, although he did walk two batters. The walks, however, could easily be attributed to rust. More than anybody, Gaudin will benefit from this final week, as he works himself back in to shape and proves he’s ready.
Up until a few weeks ago, Samardzija looked like he had pitched himself into the 7th inning specialist’s role. He has since struggled there and apparently has given some people in the organization pause as to whether or not he’s ready for such a role in a high-everage situation. Yet even if the 7th inning role goes to Gaudin, Samardzija has shown enough to warrant a spot in the bulpen. Lou will probably keep him on, and I agree with the move.
Which leaves one spot for the rest of this flotsam. If Lou is hung up on having another lefty–in fact, since Marshall is not really a LOOGY anyway–he’ll go with Cotts. Cotts has had some good outings, but has also had some outings that are baseball’s equivalent to a naked Bea Arthur, and you don’t know which Neal Cotts will show up in the playoffs. As far as Lou is concerned, it will probably comes down to either Cotts or Howry, and the only thing saving Bob Howry and his little red gas can is that Lou does, in fact, really really want to see him turn it around.
Hopefuly Lou comes to his senses and opts for neither. While Randy Wells has pitched well since being called up, I would prefer the Cubs take a flyer on Guzman. Yeah, Guzman looked like horseshit his last time out but seems to have the best stuff amongst all these guys. Plus, the fact that the teams the Cubs will face would not be very familiar with Guzman could help. Of course, we’re talking about the last man in the bullpen, someone who hopefully won’t need to come in anyway. But if it’s got to be anyone, I’d like to see them role the dice on #37.
“Bubbe” Position Players
Micah Hoffpauer
Felix Pie.
Hoffpauer’s upside is that looked good during his callup in June. He’s shown some pop and could potentially make a difference. His downside is that he hasn’t shown much since being called back up in September and, in any of his callups, all of his hits have basically been in low-pressure situations. With the game on the line, I’m not so sure that Hoffpauer’s got enough to nut up and deliver. Of course, it also comes down to the fact that the Cubs already have a few guys coming off the bench who can be called upon in those situations.
If they are going with Pie it’s because they’re addressing a different need than they would if they were to call on Hoffpauer. Whereas Hoffpauer presents a big stick, Pie’s presence would be more for defensive insurance and pinch-running ability. Since, like with the 11th pitcher, we’re talking about a player who will not factor into too many of these games, I’ll take the insurance and go with Felix.
Feel free to hash out any of your thoughts in the comments.
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CT
StPatrick
PenFoe
BigFlax
Bocaj
Lou will probably have both Cotts and Howry on the roster. If so, wait till next year.
Although I wish we could leave Cedeno & Ward off the roster, I’m sure they’ll both be on there. As long as Pie plays well this week, I really think he’ll be on the roster. He appears to be more patient, and I have been pleasantly surprised with his most recent callup (although, it would be nice if he learned how to bunt for a single…)
Gaudin, as long as he is healthy, is essential for our playoff run in my opinion. I really think Marquis has earned a spot, and I think he’d be useful in relief. He always seems to just have that one bad inning, and perhaps in relief he’d be able to avoid it…
I think Cotts is nearly a lock because he’s a lefty…and I think having Guzman over Howry is an excellent idea…but let’s see how they pan out this week.
Unless Gaudin has a lights out week, here are your 3 remaining pitchers.
Jeff Samardzija
Neal Cotts
Bob Howry
Pie will make it just for speed.
You can take that downtown and print it.
Part of the reason we have Gaudin was Harden insurance. Marquis fills that role in the post season roster. Coming off an injury from getting wasted with hobo’s in an alley, it’s going to take a lot for him to make the squad.
“Cotts has had some good outings, but has also had some outings that are baseball’s equivalent to a naked Bea Arthur.”
So he’s had some good outings, and some outings that are beyond awesome?
Guzman has pitched twice in the last week and been horrible both times. You are a crazy man if you want him on the roster or think he has any shot.
I think Pie wins the Hoffpauir/Pie debate – which I too think is the only one on the table regarding position players – because of what he offers in pinch-running and defense. It’s fairly unlikely either would be called on to pinch-hit anyway, and Hoffpauir doesn’t offer the team anything that isn’t already accounted for by Daryle Ward. I like Hoffpauir but I just don’t see a place for him on this squad.
I believe the saying goes, “when you have 3 CFs on your postseason roster, you have no CFs on your postseason roster.”
I cannot stand Ward, and I believe he has no business being on the playoff roster. The guy can’t field, can’t run, and can’t hit. He has had literally one (1) hit all year that mattered. Yes, Hufflepuffer has likely had zero (0) hits that have mattered for us, but he can play D better than Ward, he can run better than Ward, and he has more power than Ward. Ward is worthless, and needs to stay off of the playoff roster.
You don’t come here much, huh?
For the record, D-Ward had at least two gigantic hits this year. One was a clutch double against Tony Pena and the D-Backs during the early-season sweep; the other was the mammoth home run against the Marlins that won the game.
Ward’s had a down year statistically, sure. But he’s a veteran, a pro, a clubhouse influence, and a hitter. I’ll take my chances with him against right-handed relievers.
“. . . he’s a veteran, a pro, a clubhouse influence, and a hitter.”
This is what you say about a guy when you can’t say anything worthwhile, kind of like saying Matt Morris is a “crafty veteran” when he’s 4-12 with a 6.8 ERA. Hufflepuffer has played every day in AAA, and put up monstrous stats out of nowhere, kind of like one Geo Soto did last year before being called up and being the only guy to hit for us in October. Ward, on the other hand, hasn’t played all year, and when he has has done nothing but pop out and strike out. Oh, and sorry, over 155ish games has had a whole 2 worthwhile hits.
A naked Bea Arthur? What kind of sicko are you?
Hoffpauir wasn’t a PH in the minors. Ward is a prime PH and you really need to look at his career numbers as a pinch hitter. One of the reasons the cubs didn’t fair well in inter-league this year was due to Ward’s DL stint.
The cubs strugled at the beginning of the 2nd half & remember the cubs were a .400 or worse road team and had never won (0-12 or something close) a Florida game in the Lou Piniella era until Ward hit that PH Home Run!!! Quit slagging Ward off!!
Ward turned round the cubs season in the second half & got them over the bad road team hump!!!