Fill In the Blanks

So now that everything but home-field advantage has been settled–and, truthfully this, too should be settled in the Cubs’ favor before the weekend–we’ve got a week to turn our attention to the postseason. Today, let’s look at what the postseason roster may look like.

Sure Things
C Geovany Soto
C Hank White
IF Derrek Lee
IF Mike Fontenot
IF Ryan Theriot
IF Aramis Ramirez
IF/OF Mark DeRosa
IF/OF Daryle Ward
OF Alfonso Soriano
OF Reed Johnson
OF Jim Edmonds
OF Kosuke Fukudome
P Ryan Dempster
P Carlos Zambrano
P Ted Lilly
P Rich Harden
P Carlos Marmol
P Kerry Wood

That’s 18.

Very Likely
IF Ronny Cedeno
P Jason Marquis
P Sean Marshall

There is an argument that Marquis has little value if he’s not starting. As much as we’ve heaped abuse on Marquis, he’s actually done a very adequate job as a #5 starter. I’d be willing to bet that he’s out-performed most other #5’s. He’s come up big a few times–most notably when a skidding Cubs team turned to Marquis to snap their-season long six-game losing streak, and Marquis delivered. Besides, as uneven as Jason has been, when one considers some of the “bubble” bullpen guys to be discussed further down, he would seem to be a better choice to come out of the bulpen.

Marshall has sort of been Marquis Light. Not spectacular, but contributing to the teams in various aspects. One of the more overlooked performances by Marshall–indeed, since it was a few months ago may be altogether forgotten–was when he picked up the Cubs after an excruciating blown save by Kerry Wood by styming the Cardinals bats in St. Louis to take the all-important rubber match. For most of the year, Marshall has done the job when asked. It seems that he’s worked his way onto this roster.

And then there’s Ronny Dumbass. Almost by default Cedeno’s pretty much guaranteed a spot on this roster, as he’s the only other guy besides Theriot who can play shortstop. Ronny’s not very bright, and the fear here is that he’s liable to commit some sort of Jerry Dybzinski-like brainfart in a crucial situation but, like I said, what’s saving Ronny’s hide is the fact that he plays a position at which the Cubs are thin. I’m not convinced that Lou would even trust to use Cedeno at all, as just last week he opted to use Marquis ahead of him as a pinch-runner in last Thursday’s extra-inning “near-clincher” against Milwaukee. So Ronny’s essentially “break glass in case of emergency” insurance, that “emergency” being Ryan Theriot’s death.

Still, the thought here is that the above three will in all likelihood make the cut. Which brings the total to 21 and leaves 4 spots. Of those four, conventional wisdom has dictated that teams can go with one fewer pitcher in the rotation, which means the regular rotation of 12 gets trimmed to 11 and thus, 3 of the 4 spots wil go to pitchers. Let’s see what we have here.

“Bubble” Pitchers

Chad Gaudin
Jeff Samardzija
Neal Cotts
Bob Howry
Randy Wells
Michael Wuertz
Kevin Hart
Ange Guzman

Gaudin will probaby make it. In fact, he’d have been a sure thing had he not knocked down a bottle of Wild Turkey and then proceeded to lose a fight with a dumpster in a darkened alley a month ago. Gaudin made his return yesterday and pitched a scoreless inning, although he did walk two batters. The walks, however, could easily be attributed to rust. More than anybody, Gaudin will benefit from this final week, as he works himself back in to shape and proves he’s ready.

Up until a few weeks ago, Samardzija looked like he had pitched himself into the 7th inning specialist’s role. He has since struggled there and apparently has given some people in the organization pause as to whether or not he’s ready for such a role in a high-everage situation. Yet even if the 7th inning role goes to Gaudin, Samardzija has shown enough to warrant a spot in the bulpen. Lou will probably keep him on, and I agree with the move.

Which leaves one spot for the rest of this flotsam. If Lou is hung up on having another lefty–in fact, since Marshall is not really a LOOGY anyway–he’ll go with Cotts. Cotts has had some good outings, but has also had some outings that are baseball’s equivalent to a naked Bea Arthur, and you don’t know which Neal Cotts will show up in the playoffs. As far as Lou is concerned, it will probably comes down to either Cotts or Howry, and the only thing saving Bob Howry and his little red gas can is that Lou does, in fact, really really want to see him turn it around.

Hopefuly Lou comes to his senses and opts for neither. While Randy Wells has pitched well since being called up, I would prefer the Cubs take a flyer on Guzman. Yeah, Guzman looked like horseshit his last time out but seems to have the best stuff amongst all these guys. Plus, the fact that the teams the Cubs will face would not be very familiar with Guzman could help. Of course, we’re talking about the last man in the bullpen, someone who hopefully won’t need to come in anyway. But if it’s got to be anyone, I’d like to see them role the dice on #37.

“Bubbe” Position Players

Micah Hoffpauer
Felix Pie.

Hoffpauer’s upside is that looked good during his callup in June. He’s shown some pop and could potentially make a difference. His downside is that he hasn’t shown much since being called back up in September and, in any of his callups, all of his hits have basically been in low-pressure situations. With the game on the line, I’m not so sure that Hoffpauer’s got enough to nut up and deliver. Of course, it also comes down to the fact that the Cubs already have a few guys coming off the bench who can be called upon in those situations.

If they are going with Pie it’s because they’re addressing a different need than they would if they were to call on Hoffpauer. Whereas Hoffpauer presents a big stick, Pie’s presence would be more for defensive insurance and pinch-running ability. Since, like with the 11th pitcher, we’re talking about a player who will not factor into too many of these games, I’ll take the insurance and go with Felix.

Feel free to hash out any of your thoughts in the comments.

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