I’m not talking about lineup construction in video games or that your best hitter should hit third due to some park adjusted, replacement level based hypothetical formula or whatever. I’m talking about how the lineup impacts the performance of different players. Maybe batting Soriano leadoff because he really wants to hit leadoff might not be a bad idea even if we’re left crossing our fingers for a .330 OBP.

I finally remembered I could post on here, so I’m weighing in on the talk about the Cubs 2008 batting order. Well, at least for a couple hours until Kermit has written another ten articles and this scrolls off the front page.

The thing about baseball players is that they’re people. Yeah, it sounds like a stupid comment, but it seems like it’s something that always gets lost when we start talking lineups. Despite the valid arguments like the leadoff hitter doesn’t lead off most at bats or how a homerun from your #6 hitter counts the same as from your #4, each position in the lineup has expectations. And most players take that seriously and that matters. If you don’t believe that, find yourself a softball league this summer. Get penciled into the #10 spot because you’re the new guy and see how that feels. I bet you push a bit too hard to prove you’re better than that. Hit in the #1 spot and you’ll be trying to slap singles. Hit #5 and swing for the fences (for better or worse). I guarantee that your lineup spot will influence your approach, and that you’ll be a lot more comfortable in some spots over others*. The MLB is obviously a whole different situation, but players in interviews talk about where they like to hit in the order and spend a hell of a lot of time talking about whether or not they are comfortable at the plate.

I know there’s no formula or statistic or observable way as a fan for us to know how comfortable the players are out there at all times. I can’t say that Fontenot’s hot start was because of small samples sized factors of because he found some gel insoles that really did the trick, or his rapid cool down was because of regression to the mean or because he caught Lou nailing his girlfriend.

Stats are great, they tell us all kinds of things about what happened. But, they don’t tell us much of anything of why it did. And this is where we get to Soriano. The last two years he’s hit the hell out of the ball, and he’s done it from the #1 spot. It’s obvious that he sees himself as a leadoff hitter, so much so that one of the reasons he came to Chicago was because he was told he could leadoff (although I’m sure the $136 mil didn’t hurt either). He’s comfortable there, and successful there, so why not leave him there where he’s happy? Pulling him out of his comfort zone in the lineup could be just as bad as putting him into center where he was confused and hit for crap. His career OPS is about 50 points higher in the leadoff spot.

So Soriano hits better leading off, and I’ve almost painted myself in a corner by saying that us fans have no way of knowing if that’s because he gets more pitches to hit, or he’s more comfortable, or it’s coincidence as he just developed into a better hitter around the time he started leading off. But that’s why we don’t set the lineup. Lou does. I don’t think he pulled Soriano out of CF or out of the 5th spot after a few games because he panicked at the short term results. I think Lou saw that Soriano was uncomfortable and did what a good manager does and got Soriano back into his comfort zone. Perhaps the 1st spot in the lineup is what the 8th inning was to LaTroy.

Maybe spring training will roll around and we’ll have Roberts and Lou will keep talking to other players about how the #5 hitter is by far the most important within earshot of Soriano and finally Soriano will decide to move on his own. But I think far more likely we’ll see another year of Soriano at the top because that’s where he wants to be and so far he’s done a pretty good job of it.

*If you’re adverse to sunlight or minor physical exertion, fire up MLB 2K7 on your xbox360 in the basement. Then try and hit with Soriano. See how his crazy leg kick that is in no way timed with the swing is jarring and makes him hard to hit with? That’s what I’m talking about, except in real life.