“In case you haven’t noticed, Cubs fans, I’m good!”Why in the sweet merciful hell are some Cubs fans so quick to trade Rich Hill this offseason? Yes, we all laughed at Jim Hendry when, in 2005, he declared the 25-year-old Hill “untouchable.” Yes, we’re all pissed off that Rich wet the bed in the playoffs (but who the fuck didn’t?). Yes, he went to Michigan, a breeding ground for douchebags. But why exactly are those same people who are quick to get rid of Hill so desperate to acquire Erik Bedard?

Don’t get me wrong. Bedard is a fantastic pitcher. He would be a huge asset to the Cubs, if only for keeping Ryan Dempster out of the rotation. But NOT IF HE COSTS YOU RICH HILL.

BEHOLD!


Rich Hill Career Statistics:

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
 2005 25 CHC NL   0   2  10   4   0   0   1  0   23.7   25   24   24   3   17   21   1   0   115   1   0  9.13  4.40   48 1.775
 2006 26 CHC NL   6   7  17  16   2   1   1  0   99.3   83   51   46  16   39   90   2   3   417   1   0  4.17  4.63  111 1.228
 2007 27 CHC NL  11   8  32  32   0   0   0  0  195.0  170   89   85  27   63  183  12   1   812   3   1  3.92  4.66  119 1.195
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
  3 Yr WL% .500  17  17  59  52   2   1   2  0  318.0  278  164  155  46  119  294  15   4  1344   5   1  4.39  4.63  106 1.248
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
 162 Game Avg    10  10  36  31   1   0   1  0  194.7  170  100   94  28   72  180   9   2   823   3   0  4.39  4.63  106 1.248
 Career High     11   8  32  32   2   1   1  0  195.0  170   89   85  27   63  183  12   3   812   3   1  3.92  4.66  119 1.195

Erik Bedard Career Statistics:

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
 2002 23 BAL AL   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0    0.7    2    1    1   0    0    1   0   0     4   0   0 13.50  4.29   32 3.000
 2004 25 BAL AL   6  10  27  26   0   0   0  0  137.3  149   83   70  13   71  121   7   7   633   1   2  4.59  4.59  100 1.602
 2005 26 BAL AL   6   8  24  24   0   0   0  0  141.7  139   66   63  10   57  125   5   4   606   1   1  4.00  4.32  108 1.384
 2006 27 BAL AL  15  11  33  33   0   0   0  0  196.3  196   92   82  16   69  171   5   6   844   0   0  3.76  4.56  121 1.350
 2007 28 BAL AL  13   5  28  28   1   1   0  0  182.0  141   66   64  19   57  221   5   3   733   0   0  3.16  4.61  146 1.088 CYA-5
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
  5 Yr WL% .541  40  34 114 111   1   1   0  0  658.0  627  308  280  58  254  639  22  20  2820   2   3  3.83  4.53  118 1.339
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+---+---+-----+-----+----+-----+
 162 Game Avg    12  10  34  33   0   0   0  0  198.7  189   93   84  17   76  193   6   6   852   0   0  3.83  4.53  118 1.339
 Career High     15  11  33  33   1   1   0  0  196.3  196   92   82  19   71  221   7   7   844   1   2  3.16  4.61  146 1.088

What’s the big fucking difference? Rich Hill at 26 and 27 years old put together arguably BETTER seasons than Erik Bedard at 26 and 27 years old (thanks to EG from Flotsam Media for first pointing that out to me). Hill has a better career WHIP. In Bedard’s best year last year, when he finished fifth in the Cy Young voting, his WHIP was a paltry .107 less than Hill’s. Hill is a year younger. I haven’t yet heard a single good justification as to why the Cubs should swap Hill for Bedard.

Bedard’s numbers drastically improved from his 2006 season (when he was 27) to his 2007 season (when he was 28). Who’s to say Hill won’t accomplish the same feat next year, as he turns 28? If Rich Hill improves his ERA by six-tenths of a run next year and his WHIP by .262 (as Bedard did), we’re looking at a guy with a 3.32 ERA and a 0.933 WHIP. No doubt expecting such an improvement is a stretch, but even if Hill only marginally improves his numbers, isn’t that enough?

Yes, Hill gave up a ton of home runs last year. When his curveball doesn’t break, it often finds the seats. But Bedard gave up 19 home runs last year to Hill’s 27, and Camden Yards certainly hasn’t played much better than an average hitter’s park for the last several years, despite its reputation of bandboxery. Wrigley Field, on the other hand, was a launching pad last year. I’m sure someone has time to break down the individual starts to see how many bombs these guys gave up away vs. at home. And I understand that Bedard is pitching against teams the Yankees and Red Sox, while Hill is pitching against teams like the Pirates and Astros. But is the difference between Hill and Bedard the difference between a first-round playoff bump and a World Series champion?

Some people are willing to give up Hill, Marshall, Pie, Cedeno, and Murton for this guy? Why?